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Optimal BIBD-extended designsFeb 12 2019Balanced incomplete block designs (BIBDs) are a class of designs with v treatments and b blocks of size k that are optimal with regards to a wide range of optimality criteria, but it is not clear which designs to choose for combinations of v, b and k ... More Characterization of Sine- Skewed von Mises DistributionFeb 07 2019The von Mises distribution is one of the most important distribution in statistics to deal with circular data. In this paper we will consider some basic properties and characterizations of the sine skewed von Mises distribution. Organic Fiducial InferenceJan 23 2019A substantial generalization is put forward of the theory of subjective fiducial inference as it was outlined in earlier papers. In particular, this theory is extended to deal with cases where the data are discrete or categorical rather than continuous, ... More Custodes: Auditable Hypothesis TestingJan 19 2019We present Custodes: a new approach to solving the complex issue of preventing "p-hacking" in scientific studies. The novel protocol provides a concrete and publicly auditable method for controlling false-discoveries and eliminates any potential for data ... More Systemic Risk: Conditional Distortion Risk MeasuresJan 15 2019Jan 28 2019In this paper, we introduce the rich classes of conditional distortion (CoD) risk measures and distortion risk contribution ($\Delta$CoD) measures as measures of systemic risk and analyze their properties and representations. The classes include the well-known ... More Projective Decomposition and Matrix Equivalence up to ScaleJan 04 2019A data matrix may be seen simply as a means of organizing observations into rows ( e.g., by measured object) and into columns ( e.g., by measured variable) so that the observations can be analyzed with mathematical tools. As a mathematical object, a matrix ... More Pragmatic hypotheses in the evolution of scienceDec 25 2018This paper introduces pragmatic hypotheses and relates this concept to the spiral of scientific evolution. Previous works determined a characterization of logically consistent statistical hypothesis tests and showed that the modal operators obtained from ... More Application of Robust Estimators in Shewhart S-ChartsDec 24 2018Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level is known to increase customer satisfaction and profitability. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used in statistical process control (SPC) technique to monitor the quality of products ... More On a flexible construction of a negative binomial modelDec 18 2018This work presents a construction of stationary Markov models with negative binomial marginal distributions. The proposal is novel in that a simple form of the corresponding transition probabilities is available, thus revealing uninvolved simulation and ... More I can see clearly now: reinterpreting statistical significanceOct 15 2018Null hypothesis significance testing remains popular despite decades of concern about misuse and misinterpretation. We believe that much of the problem is due to language: significance testing has little to do with other meanings of the word "significance". ... More Benchmarking in cluster analysis: A white paperSep 27 2018Oct 01 2018To achieve scientific progress in terms of building a cumulative body of knowledge, careful attention to benchmarking is of the utmost importance. This means that proposals of new methods of data pre-processing, new data-analytic techniques, and new methods ... More Hyperspectral Data Analysis in R: the hsdar PackageMay 14 2018Hyperspectral remote sensing is a promising tool for a variety of applications including ecology, geology, analytical chemistry and medical research. This article presents the new \hsdar package for R statistical software, which performs a variety of ... More On Statistical Non-SignificanceMar 01 2018Significance tests are probably the most extended form of inference in empirical research, and significance is often interpreted as providing greater informational content than non-significance. In this article we show, however, that rejection of a point ... More Elements of the Kopula (eventological copula) theoryFeb 17 2018New in the probability theory and eventology theory, the concept of Kopula (eventological copula) is introduced. The theorem on the characterization of the sets of events by Kopula is proved, which serves as the eventological pre-image of the well-known ... Morestat.OT60A05 (Primary) 60A10, 60A86, 62A01, 62A86, 62H10, 62H11, 62H12,
68T01, 68T27, 81P05, 81P10, 91B08, 91B10, 91B12, 91B14, 91B30, 91B42, 91B80,
93B07, 94D05 (Secondary) Using Random Variables to Predict Experimental OutcomesJan 05 2018We shall show in this paper that there are experiments which are Bernoulli trials with success probability p > 0.5, and which have the curious feature that it is possible to correctly predict the outcome with probability > p. Restoring a smooth function from its noisy integralsJul 21 2017May 11 2018Numerical (and experimental) data analysis often requires the restoration of a smooth function from a set of sampled integrals over finite bins. We present the bin hierarchy method that efficiently computes the maximally smooth function from the sampled ... More A novel entropy recurrence quantification analysisJul 04 2017The growing study of time series, especially those related to nonlinear systems, has challenged the methodologies to characterize and classify dynamical structures of a signal. Here we conceive a new diagnostic tool for time series based on the concept ... More Asymptotic properties of a componentwise ARH(1) plug-in predictorJun 20 2017Sep 04 2018This paper presents new results on prediction of linear processes in function spaces. The autoregressive Hilbertian process framework of order one (ARH(1) process framework) is adopted. A componentwise estimator of the autocorrelation operator is formulated, ... Moremath.STmath.FAstat.APstat.OTstat.TH11C20, 11H55, 11M50, 15A24, 15A63, 15A69, 34L05, 60B12, 60G10,
60G15, 60G25, 60H25, 62M10, 62M15, 62M20 Fiducial on a stringJun 12 2017The fiducial argument of Fisher (1973) has been described as his biggest blunder, but the recent review of Hannig et al. (2016) demonstrates the current and increasing interest in this brilliant idea. This short note analyses an example introduced by ... More The BIN_COUNTS Constraint: Filtering and ApplicationsNov 28 2016We introduce the BIN_COUNTS constraint, which deals with the problem of counting the number of decision variables in a set which are assigned values that lie in given bins. We illustrate a decomposition and a filtering algorithm that achieves generalised ... More Stop the tests: Opinion bias and statistical testsNov 20 2016When statisticians quarrel about hypothesis testing, the debate usually focus on which method is the correct one. The fundamental question of whether we should test hypothesis at all tends to be forgotten. This lack of debate has its roots on our desire ... More On $p$-valuesNov 18 2016Models are consistently treated as approximations and all procedures are consistent with this. They do not treat the model as being true. In this context $p$-values are one measure of approximation, a small $p$-value indicating a poor approximation. Approximation ... More On approximations via convolution-defined mixture modelsNov 12 2016An often-cited fact regarding mixing distributions is that their densities can approximate the densities of any unknown distribution to arbitrary degrees of accuracy provided that the mixing distribution is sufficiently complex. This fact is often not ... More Apocalypse Now? Reviving the Doomsday ArgumentNov 01 2016Whether the fate of our species can be forecast from its past has been the topic of considerable controversy. One refutation of the so-called Doomsday Argument is based on the premise that we are more likely to exist in a universe containing a greater ... More Eigenvector statistics of the product of Ginibre matricesOct 28 2016We develop a method to calculate left-right eigenvector correlations of the product of $m$ independent $N\times N$ complex Ginibre matrices. For illustration, we present explicit analytical results for the vector overlap for a couple of examples for small ... More Causal influence in linear response modelsOct 25 2016The intuition of causation is so fundamental that almost every research study in life sciences refers to this concept. However a widely accepted formal definition of causal influence between observables is still missing. In the framework of linear Langevin ... More A Devastating Example for the Halfer RuleOct 17 2016How should we update de dicto beliefs in the face of de se evidence? The Sleeping Beauty problem divides philosophers into two camps, halfers and thirders. But there is some disagreement among halfers about how their position should generalize to other ... More Research and Education in Computational Science and EngineeringOct 09 2016Jan 01 2018Over the past two decades the field of computational science and engineering (CSE) has penetrated both basic and applied research in academia, industry, and laboratories to advance discovery, optimize systems, support decision-makers, and educate the ... More Research and Education in Computational Science and EngineeringOct 09 2016Oct 11 2016Over the past two decades the field of computational science and engineering (CSE) has penetrated both basic and applied research in academia, industry, and laboratories to advance discovery, optimize systems, support decision-makers, and educate the ... More Research and Education in Computational Science and EngineeringOct 09 2016Oct 17 2016Over the past two decades the field of computational science and engineering (CSE) has penetrated both basic and applied research in academia, industry, and laboratories to advance discovery, optimize systems, support decision-makers, and educate the ... More Scale and curvature effects in principal geodesic analysisOct 05 2016Oct 06 2016There is growing interest in using the close connection between differential geometry and statistics to model smooth manifold-valued data. In particular, much work has been done recently to generalize principal component analysis (PCA), the method of ... More Graphical Models for Discrete and Continuous DataSep 18 2016We introduce a general framework for undirected graphical models. It generalizes Gaussian graphical models to a wide range of continuous, discrete, and combinations of different types of data. We also show that the models in the framework, called exponential ... More Sterrett procedure for the generalized group testing problemSep 15 2016Sep 20 2016Group testing is a useful method that has broad applications in medicine, engineering, and even in airport security control. Consider a finite population of $N$ items, where item $i$ has a probability $p_i$ to be defective. The goal is to identify all ... More Quantitative assessment of increasing complexitySep 08 2016We study the build up of complexity on the example of 1 kg matter in different forms. We start on the simplest example of ideal gases, and then continue with more complex chemical, biological, life and social and technical structures. We assess the complexity ... More Publication bias and the canonization of false factsSep 02 2016In the process of scientific inquiry, certain claims accumulate enough support to be established as facts. Unfortunately, not every claim accorded the status of fact turns out to be true. In this paper, we model the dynamic process by which claims are ... More Publication bias and the canonization of false factsSep 02 2016Nov 20 2016In the process of scientific inquiry, certain claims accumulate enough support to be established as facts. Unfortunately, not every claim accorded the status of fact turns out to be true. In this paper, we model the dynamic process by which claims are ... More Unifying Markov Properties for Graphical ModelsAug 20 2016Aug 28 2016Several types of graph with different conditional independence interpretations --- also known as Markov properties --- have been proposed and used in graphical models. In this paper we unify these Markov properties by introducing a class of graphs with ... More Introductory statistics with intRoAug 08 2016intRo is a web-based application for performing basic data analysis and statistical routines. Leveraging the power of R and Shiny, intRo implements common statistical functions in an extensible modular structure, while including a point-and-click interface ... More Progress on a Conjecture Regarding the Triangular DistributionJul 16 2016Nov 05 2016Triangular distributions are a well-known class of distributions that are often used as an elementary example of a probability model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the mode parameter of the triangular distribution over the unit interval can be performed ... More Progress on a Conjecture Regarding the Triangular DistributionJul 16 2016Triangular distributions are a well-known class of distributions that are often used as an elementary example of a probability model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the mode parameter of the triangular distribution over the unit interval can be performed ... More Dynamic Question Ordering in Online SurveysJul 14 2016Online surveys have the potential to support adaptive questions, where later questions depend on earlier responses. Past work has taken a rule-based approach, uniformly across all respondents. We envision a richer interpretation of adaptive questions, ... More Embracing Data ScienceJul 04 2016Statistics is running the risk of appearing irrelevant to today's undergraduate students. Today's undergraduate students are familiar with data science projects and they judge statistics against what they have seen. Statistics, especially at the introductory ... More The Simulator: An Engine to Streamline SimulationsJun 30 2016The simulator is an R package that streamlines the process of performing simulations by creating a common infrastructure that can be easily used and reused across projects. Methodological statisticians routinely write simulations to compare their methods ... More Consider avoiding the .05 significance levelJun 29 2016It is suggested that some shortcomings of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST), viewed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, turn benign once the traditional threshold p value of .05 is substituted by a sufficiently smaller value. To illustrate, ... More Identifiability and testability in GRT with Individual DifferencesJun 17 2016Jul 29 2016Silbert and Thomas (2013) showed that failures of decisional separability are not, in general, identifiable in fully parameterized $2 \times 2$ Gaussian GRT models. A recent extension of $2 \times 2$ GRT models (GRTwIND) was developed to solve this problem ... More Bringing Order to the Chaos in the BrickyardJun 10 2016An allegory published in 1963 titled Chaos in the Brickyard spoke to the decline in the quality of research. In the intervening time greater awareness of the issues and actions to improve research endeavors have emerged. Still, problems persist. This ... More A statistical inference course based on p-valuesJun 07 2016Introductory statistical inference texts and courses treat the point estimation, hypothesis testing, and interval estimation problems separately, with primary emphasis on large-sample approximations. Here I present an alternative approach to teaching ... More When Does a Boltzmannian Equilibrium Exist?Jun 03 2016The received wisdom in statistical mechanics is that isolated systems, when left to themselves, approach equilibrium. But under what circumstances does an equilibrium state exist and an approach to equilibrium take place? In this paper we address these ... More Peter Hall's work on high-dimensional data and classificationJun 03 2016In this article, I summarise Peter Hall's contributions to high-dimensional data, including their geometric representations and variable selection methods based on ranking. I also discuss his work on classification problems, concluding with some personal ... More Some Mathematical Aspects of Price OptimisationMay 19 2016Calculation of an optimal tariff is a principal challenge for pricing actuaries. In this contribution we are concerned with the renewal insurance business discussing various mathematical aspects of calculation of an optimal renewal tariff. Our motivation ... More Sobol' indices for problems defined in non-rectangular domainsMay 17 2016A novel theoretical and numerical framework for the estimation of Sobol sensitivity indices for models in which inputs are confined to a non-rectangular domain (e.g., in presence of inequality constraints) is developed. Two numerical methods, namely the ... More Teaching Data ScienceApr 25 2016We describe an introductory data science course, entitled Introduction to Data Science, offered at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The course introduced general programming concepts by using the Python programming language with an emphasis ... More BFDA: A Matlab Toolbox for Bayesian Functional Data AnalysisApr 18 2016We provide a Matlab toolbox, BFDA, that implements a Bayesian hierarchical model for smoothing functional data and estimating mean-covariance functions simultaneously and nonparametricaly, with the assumptions of Gaussian process for functional data and ... More Statistical sensitiveness for scienceApr 07 2016Research often necessitates of samples, yet obtaining large enough samples is not always possible. When it is, the researcher may use one of two methods for deciding upon the required sample size: rules-of-thumb, quick yet uncertain, and estimations for ... More Picking Winners Using Integer ProgrammingApr 06 2016Jul 06 2016We consider the problem of selecting a portfolio of entries of fixed cardinality for a winner take all contest such that the probability of at least one entry winning is maximized. This framework is very general and can be used to model a variety of problems, ... More An overview and perspective on social network monitoringMar 31 2016In this expository paper we give an overview of some statistical methods for the monitoring of social networks. We discuss the advantages and limitations of various methods as well as some relevant issues. One of our primary contributions is to give the ... More