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The pattern of economies green growth: The role of path dependency in Green Economy expansionJun 12 2019Existing research argues that countries increase their production baskets based on the available capabilities, adding products which require similar capabilities to those already produced, a process referred to as path dependency. Expansions to include ... More
ProPublica's COMPAS Data RevisitedJun 11 2019In this paper I re-examine the COMPAS recidivism score and criminal history data collected by ProPublica in 2016, which has fueled intense debate and research in the nascent field of `algorithmic fairness' or `fair machine learning' over the past three ... More
ProPublica's COMPAS Data RevisitedJun 11 2019Jun 13 2019In this paper I re-examine the COMPAS recidivism score and criminal history data collected by ProPublica in 2016, which has fueled intense debate and research in the nascent field of `algorithmic fairness' or `fair machine learning' over the past three ... More
Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal economic behavior in humansJun 11 2019Jun 12 2019Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theory reveals how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimise wealth over time, agents ... More
Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal economic behavior in humansJun 11 2019Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theory reveals how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimise wealth over time, agents ... More
Bayesian Estimation of Economic Simulation Models using Neural NetworksJun 11 2019Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly agent-based models, ... More
Automation and occupational mobility: A data-driven network modelJun 10 2019Many existing jobs are prone to automation, but since new technologies also create new jobs it is crucial to understand job transitions. Based on empirical data we construct an occupational mobility network where nodes are occupations and edges represent ... More
Market Implementation of Multiple-Arrival Multiple-Deadline Differentiated Energy ServicesJun 07 2019An increasing concern in power systems is on how to elicit flexibilities in demands for better supply/demand balance. To this end, several differentiated energy services have been put forward, wherein demands are discriminated by their different flexibility ... More
The route to chaos in routing games: Population increase drives period-doubling instability, chaos & inefficiency with Price of Anarchy equal to oneJun 06 2019We study a learning dynamic model of routing (congestion) games to explore how an increase in the total demand influences system performance. We focus on non-atomic routing games with two parallel edges of linear cost, where all agents evolve using Multiplicative ... More
Mapping the Sahelian SpaceJun 05 2019This chapter examines the geographical meaning of the Sahel, its fluid boundaries, and its spatial dynamics. Unlike other approaches that define the Sahel as a bioclimatic zone or as an ungoverned area, it shows that the Sahel is primarily a space of ... More
Game-Theoretic Optimal Portfolios in Continuous TimeJun 05 2019We consider a two-person trading game in continuous time whereby each player chooses a constant rebalancing rule $b$ that he must adhere to over $[0,t]$. If $V_t(b)$ denotes the final wealth of the rebalancing rule $b$, then Player 1 (the `numerator player') ... More
Battling Antibiotic Resistance: Can Machine Learning Improve Prescribing?Jun 05 2019Antibiotic resistance constitutes a major health threat. Predicting bacterial causes of infections is key to reducing antibiotic misuse, a leading driver of antibiotic resistance. We train a machine learning algorithm on administrative and microbiological ... More
Two Resolutions of the Margin Loan Pricing PuzzleJun 03 2019This paper supplies two possible resolutions of Fortune's (2000) margin-loan pricing puzzle. Fortune (2000) noted that the margin loan interest rates charged by stock brokers are very high in relation to the actual (low) credit risk and the cost of funds. ... More
The Laws of Motion of the Broker Call Rate in the United StatesJun 03 2019In this paper, which is the third installment of the author's trilogy on margin loan pricing, we analyze $1,367$ monthly observations of the U.S. broker call money rate, which is the interest rate at which stock brokers can borrow to fund their margin ... More
Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Entrepreneurship: A New Era Has BegunJun 03 2019While the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and Big Data has been receiving growing attention and concern in a variety of research and application fields over the last few years, it has not received much scrutiny in contemporary entrepreneurship ... More
On Policy Evaluation with Aggregate Time-Series ShocksMay 31 2019In this paper we construct a parsimonious causal model that addresses multiple issues researchers face when trying to use aggregate time-series shocks for policy evaluation: (a) potential unobserved aggregate confounders, (b) availability of various unit-level ... More
Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility FunctionMay 31 2019The New Keynesian model makes several anomalous predictions at the zero lower bound: collapse of output and inflation, and implausibly large effects of forward guidance and government spending. To resolve these anomalies, we introduce wealth into the ... More
Labor Market Outcomes and Early Schooling: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of BirthMay 30 2019We use a rich, census-like Brazilian dataset containing information on spatial mobility, schooling, and income in which we can link children to parents to assess the impact of early education on several labor market outcomes. Brazilian public primary ... More
Heuristics in Multi-Winner Approval VotingMay 28 2019In many real world situations, collective decisions are made using voting. Moreover, scenarios such as committee or board elections require voting rules that return multiple winners. In multi-winner approval voting (AV), an agent may vote for as many ... More
Heuristics in Multi-Winner Approval VotingMay 28 2019May 30 2019In many real world situations, collective decisions are made using voting. Moreover, scenarios such as committee or board elections require voting rules that return multiple winners. In multi-winner approval voting (AV), an agent may vote for as many ... More
Perception towards Electric Vehicles and the Impact on Consumers' PreferenceMay 28 2019Relative advantage, or the degree to which a new technology is perceived to be better than an existing technology which is being replaced, has a significant impact on individuals decisions on when, how and to what extent to adopt. An integrated choice ... More
Autonomous Driving and Residential Location Preferences: Evidence from a Stated Choice SurveyMay 27 2019This paper seeks to advance the understanding of the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on travel behaviour and land use by investigating stated preferences for combinations of residential locations and travel options for the commute in the ... More
Contest Architecture with Public DisclosuresMay 27 2019May 28 2019I study optimal disclosure policies in sequential contests. A contest designer chooses at which periods to publicly disclose the efforts of previous contestants. I provide results for a wide range of possible objectives for the contest designer. While ... More
Technological Learning and Innovation Gestation Lags at the Frontier of Science: from CERN Procurement to PatentMay 23 2019This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of Big Science Centres on technological innovation. We exploit a unique dataset with information on CERN's procurement orders to study the collaborative innovation process between CERN and its industrial ... More
The perils of automated fitting of datasets: the case of a wind turbine cost modelMay 21 2019Rinne et al. conduct an interesting analysis of the impact of wind turbine technology and land-use on wind power potentials, which allows profound insights into each factors contribution to overall potentials. The paper presents a detailed model of site-specific ... More
A Comment on "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting" by Hanming Fang and Yang WangMay 16 2019The recent literature often cites Fang and Wang (2015) for analyzing the identification of time preferences in dynamic discrete choice under exclusion restrictions (e.g. Yao et al., 2012; Lee, 2013; Ching et al., 2013; Norets and Tang, 2014; Dub\'e et ... More
Playing with ghosts in a Dynkin gameMay 16 2019We study a class of optimal stopping games (Dynkin games) of preemption type, with uncertainty about the existence of competitors. The set-up is well-suited to model, for example, real options in the context of investors who do not want to publicly reveal ... More
Improving Regression-based Event Study Analysis Using a Topological Machine-learning MethodMay 16 2019This paper introduces a new correction scheme to a conventional regression-based event study method: a topological machine-learning approach with a self-organizing map (SOM).We use this new scheme to analyze a major market event in Japan and find that ... More
Computational SocioeconomicsMay 15 2019Uncovering the structure of socioeconomic systems and timely estimation of socioeconomic status are significant for economic development. The understanding of socioeconomic processes provides foundations to quantify global economic development, to map ... More
The role of pawnshops in risk coping in early twentieth-century JapanMay 11 2019This study examines the role of pawnshops as a risk-coping strategy in Japan in the prewar period when poor people were highly vulnerable. Using data on pawnshop loans in more than 250 municipalities and the 1918--1920 influenza pandemic as a natural ... More
Impacts of Japan's Automobile NOx Law of 1992May 11 2019This study investigates the impacts of the Automobile NOx Law of 1992 on four pollutants in Japan. By utilizing monitoring data between 1897 and 1997, we found that the regulation decreased the level of SO2 by approximately 12.4%. The improving effects ... More
Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social InteractionsMay 10 2019Many real-life settings of consumer-choice involve social interactions, causing targeted policies to have spillover-effects. This paper develops novel empirical tools for analyzing demand and welfare-effects of policy-interventions in binary choice settings ... More
Empirical bias and efficiency of alpha-auctions: experimental evidenceMay 09 2019We experimentally evaluate the comparative performance of the winner-bid, average-bid, and loser-bid auctions for the dissolution of a partnership. The recently introduced empirical equilibrium analysis of Velez and Brown (2019) reveals that as long as ... More
The Likelihood of Mixed Hitting TimesMay 09 2019We present a method for computing the likelihood of a mixed hitting-time model that specifies durations as the first time a latent L\'evy process crosses a heterogeneous threshold. This likelihood is not generally known in closed form, but its Laplace ... More
Dependencies and systemic risk in the European insurance sector: Some new evidence based on copula-DCC-GARCH model and selected clustering methodsMay 08 2019The subject of the present article is the study of correlations between large insurance companies and their contribution to systemic risk in the insurance sector. Our main goal is to analyze the conditional structure of the correlation on the European ... More
The mitigating role of regulation on the concentric patterns of broadband diffusion. The case of FinlandMay 08 2019This article analyzes the role of Finnish regulation in achieving the broadband penetration goals defined by the National Regulatory Authority. It is well known that in the absence of regulatory mitigation the population density has a positive effect ... More
Economic Performance Through Time: A Dynamical TheoryMay 08 2019The central problems of Development Economics are the explanation of the gross disparities in the global distribution, $\cal{D}$, of economic performance, $\cal{E}$, and the persistence, $\cal{P}$, of said distribution. Douglass North argued, epigrammatically, ... More
Where does active travel fit within local community narratives of mobility space and place?May 07 2019Encouraging sustainable mobility patterns is at the forefront of policymaking at all scales of governance as the collective consciousness surrounding climate change continues to expand. Not every community, however, possesses the necessary economic or ... More
Does Environmental Economics lead to patentable research?May 07 2019In this feasibility study, the impact of academic research from social sciences and humanities on technological innovation is explored through a study of citations patterns of journal articles in patents. Specifically we focus on citations of journals ... More
From Sicilian mafia to Chinese "scam villages"May 06 2019Inspired by Gambetta's theory on the origins of the mafia in Sicily, we report a geo-concentrating phenomenon of scams in China, and propose a novel economic explanation. Our analysis has some policy implications.
Computing a Data DividendMay 06 2019Quality data is a fundamental contributor to success in statistics and machine learning. If a statistical assessment or machine learning leads to decisions that create value, data contributors may want a share of that value. This paper presents methods ... More
Decision Making with Machine Learning and ROC CurvesMay 05 2019The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a representation of the statistical information discovered in binary classification problems and is a key concept in machine learning and data science. This paper studies the statistical properties ... More
Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation studyMay 05 2019This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross Domestic Product ... More
Characterizing non-myopic information cascades in Bayesian learningMay 03 2019We consider an environment where a finite number of players need to decide whether to buy a certain product (or adopt a trend) or not. The product is either good or bad, but its true value is not known to the players. Instead, each player has her own ... More
Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Businesses: from Research, Innovation, Market Deployment to Future Shifts in Business ModelsMay 03 2019The fast pace of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation is propelling strategists to reshape their business models. This is fostering the integration of AI in the business processes but the consequences of this adoption are underexplored and need ... More
Data Analytics in Operations Management: A ReviewMay 02 2019Research in operations management has traditionally focused on models for understanding, mostly at a strategic level, how firms should operate. Spurred by the growing availability of data and recent advances in machine learning and optimization methodologies, ... More
Supervised Machine Learning for Eliciting Individual Reservation ValuesApr 30 2019Direct elicitation, guided by theory, is the standard method for eliciting individual-level latent variables. We present an alternative approach, supervised machine learning (SML), and apply it to measuring individual valuations for goods. We find that ... More
Online reviews can predict long-term returns of individual stocksApr 30 2019Online reviews are feedback voluntarily posted by consumers about their consumption experiences. This feedback indicates customer attitudes such as affection, awareness and faith towards a brand or a firm and demonstrates inherent connections with a company's ... More
Identification of Key Companies for International Profit Shifting in the Global Ownership NetworkApr 28 2019In the global economy, the intermediate companies owned by multinational corporations are becoming an important policy issue as they are likely to cause international profit shifting and diversion of foreign direct investments. The purpose of this analysis ... More
Regulating AI: do we need new tools?Apr 27 2019The Artificial Intelligence paradigm (hereinafter referred to as "AI") builds on the analysis of data able, among other things, to snap pictures of the individuals' behaviors and preferences. Such data represent the most valuable currency in the digital ... More
A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach to Study the Barriers to the Adoption of Autonomous VehiclesApr 26 2019The automation technology is emerging, but the adoption rate of autonomous vehicles (AV) will largely depend upon how policymakers and the government address various challenges such as public acceptance and infrastructure development. This study proposes ... More
A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach to Study the Barriers to the Adoption of Autonomous VehiclesApr 26 2019May 03 2019The automation technology is emerging, but the adoption rate of autonomous vehicles (AV) will largely depend upon how policymakers and the government address various challenges such as public acceptance and infrastructure development. This study proposes ... More
A Game Theoretic Setting of Capitation Versus Fee-For-Service Payment SystemsApr 25 2019We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from ... More
Risk-neutral pricing for APTApr 25 2019We consider the problem of super-replication (hedging without risk) for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. The dual characterization of super-replication cost is provided. It is shown that the reservation prices of investors converge to this cost as their ... More
Multiple Benefits through Smart Home Energy Management Solutions -- A Simulation-Based Case Study of a Single-Family House in Algeria and GermanyApr 25 2019From both global and local perspectives, there are strong reasons to promote energy efficiency. These reasons have prompted leaders in the European Union (EU) and countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to adopt policies to move their citizenry ... More
Observing Actions in Bayesian GamesApr 24 2019We study Bayesian coordination games where agents receive noisy private information over the game's payoff structure, and over each others' actions. If private information over actions is precise, we find that agents can coordinate on multiple equilibria. ... More
Investment in EV charging spots for parkingApr 22 2019As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is expanding, meeting the need for charging infrastructure, especially in urban areas, has become a critical issue. One method of adding charging stations is to install them at parking spots. This increases the value ... More
ICT Capital-Skill Complementarity and Wage Inequality: Evidence from Fourteen OECD CountriesApr 22 2019Abstract Although it is well known that wage inequality has evolved over recent decades, it is not known the extent to which the evolution of wage inequality is attributed to observed factors such as capital and labor quantities or unobserved factors ... More
Sharp Bounds for the Marginal Treatment Effect with Sample SelectionApr 17 2019I analyze treatment effects in situations when agents endogenously select into the treatment group and into the observed sample. As a theoretical contribution, I propose pointwise sharp bounds for the marginal treatment effect (MTE) of interest within ... More
A Pyramid Scheme Model Based on "Consumer Rebate" FraudsApr 17 2019Apr 18 2019There are various types of pyramid schemes which have inflicted or are inflicting losses on many people in the world. We propose a pyramid scheme model which has the principal characters of many pyramid schemes appeared in recent years: promising high ... More
Can Mobility-on-Demand services do better after discerning reliability preferences of riders?Apr 16 2019We formalize one aspect of reliability in the context of Mobility-on-Demand (MoD) systems by acknowledging the uncertainty in the pick-up time of these services. This study answers two key questions: i) how the difference between the stated and actual ... More
Multiple-interaction kinetic modelling of a virtual-item gambling economyApr 16 2019In recent years, there has been a proliferation of online gambling sites, which made gambling more accessible with a consequent rise in related problems, such as addiction. Hence, the analysis of the gambling behaviour at both the individual and the aggregate ... More
Consumer Privacy and Serial MonopolyApr 16 2019We examine the implications of consumer privacy when preferences today depend upon past consumption choices, and consumers shop from different sellers in each period. Although consumers are ex ante identical, their initial consumption choices cannot be ... More
Price Setting on a NetworkApr 14 2019Most products are produced and sold by supply chain networks, where an interconnected network of producers and intermediaries set prices to maximize their profits. I show that there exists a unique equilibrium in a price-setting game on a network. The ... More
Boomerang: Rebounding the Consequences of Reputation Feedback on Crowdsourcing PlatformsApr 14 2019Paid crowdsourcing platforms suffer from low-quality work and unfair rejections, but paradoxically, most workers and requesters have high reputation scores. These inflated scores, which make high-quality work and workers difficult to find, stem from social ... More
Eliciting Preferences of Ridehailing Users and Drivers: Evidence from the United StatesApr 14 2019Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) are changing the transportation ecosystem, but micro-decisions of drivers and users need to be better understood to assess the system-level impacts of TNCs. In this regard, we contribute to the literature by estimating ... More
Nash Bargaining Over Margin Loans to Kelly GamblersApr 14 2019I derive practical formulas for optimal arrangements between sophisticated stock market investors (namely, continuous-time Kelly gamblers) and the brokers who lend them cash for leveraged bets on a high Sharpe asset (i.e. the market portfolio). Rather ... More
Rational Inattention and Retirement PuzzlesApr 13 2019I present evidence incorporating costly thought solves three puzzles in the retirement literature. The first puzzle is, given incentives, the extent of bunching of labour market exits at legislated state pension ages (SPA) seems incompatible with rational ... More
Behaving Optimally in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate MarketsApr 12 2019Solar Renewable Energy Certificate Markets (SREC) markets are a relatively novel market-based system to incentivize the production of energy from solar means. A regulator imposes a floor on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate from solar ... More
Shared factory: a new production node for social manufacturing in the context of sharing economyApr 12 2019Manufacturing industry is heading towards socialization, interconnection, and platformization. Motivated by the infiltration of sharing economy usage in manufacturing, this paper addresses a new factory model -- shared factory -- and provides a theoretical ... More
Pricing under Fairness ConcernsApr 11 2019This paper proposes a theory of pricing consistent with two well-documented patterns: customers care about fairness, and firms take these concerns into account when they set prices. The theory assumes that customers find a price unfair when it carries ... More
Pricing under Fairness ConcernsApr 11 2019Jun 05 2019This paper proposes a theory of pricing consistent with two well-documented patterns: customers care about fairness, and firms take these concerns into account when they set prices. The theory assumes that customers find a price unfair when it carries ... More
Understanding consumer demand for new transport technologies and services, and implications for the future of mobilityApr 11 2019The transport sector is witnessing unprecedented levels of disruption. Privately owned cars that operate on internal combustion engines have been the dominant modes of passenger transport for much of the last century. However, recent advances in transport ... More
Stochastic Comparative Statics in Markov Decision ProcessesApr 10 2019In multi-period stochastic optimization problems, the future optimal decision is a random variable whose distribution depends on the parameters of the optimization problem. We analyze how the expected value of this random variable changes as a function ... More
A Normative Dual-value Theory for Bitcoin and other CryptocurrenciesApr 10 2019Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies are all plagued by the impact from bifurcation. Since the marginal cost of bifurcation is theoretically zero, it causes the coin holders to doubt on the existence of the coin's intrinsic value. This paper suggests ... More
Robust Mathematical Formulation and Implementation of Agent-Based Computational Economic Market ModelsApr 10 2019Monte Carlo Simulations of agent-based models in science and especially in the economic literature have become a widely used modeling approach. In many applications the number of agents is huge and the models are formulated as a large system of difference ... More
FDI, banking crisis and growth: direct and spill over effectsApr 08 2019This study suggests a new decomposition of the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on long-term growth in developing countries. It reveals that FDI not only have a positive direct effect on growth, but also increase the latter by reducing the recessionary ... More
UK food prices after Brexit, with implications for poverty and healthApr 05 2019A key driver of household food insecurity is the balance between household disposable income and food prices. In the UK in recent years, many households have relied on charitable food banks in order to eat. The UK exit of the EU (Brexit) is expected to ... More
Do Hospital Data Breaches Reduce Patient Care Quality?Apr 03 2019Objective: To estimate the relationship between a hospital data breach and hospital quality outcome Materials and Methods: Hospital data breaches reported to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services breach portal and the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse ... More
Parallel Experimentation in a Competitive Advertising MarketplaceMar 27 2019When multiple firms are simultaneously running experiments on a platform, the treatment effects for one firm may depend on the experimentation policies of others. This paper presents a set of causal estimands that are relevant to such an environment. ... More
Why understanding multiplex social network structuring processes will help us better understand the evolution of human behaviorMar 26 2019Anthropologists have long appreciated that single-layer networks are insufficient descriptions of human interactions---individuals are embedded in complex networks with dependencies. One debate explicitly about this surrounds food sharing. Some argue ... More
Estimation of the Shapley Value of a Peer-to-Peer Energy Sharing Game using Coalitional Stratified Random SamplingMar 26 2019Various peer-to-peer energy markets have emerged in recent years in an attempt to manage distributed energy resources in a more efficient way. One of the main challenges these models face is how to create and allocate incentives to participants. Cooperative ... More
Improving the Scalability of a Prosumer Cooperative Game with K-Means ClusteringMar 26 2019Among the various market structures under peer-to-peer energy sharing, one model based on cooperative game theory provides clear incentives for prosumers to collaboratively schedule their energy resources. The computational complexity of this model, however, ... More
Determining the Demand Elasticity in a Wholesale Electricity MarketMar 22 2019The main focus of researchers in energy markets is typically placed on the analysis of the supply side. The demand side, despite its critical importance, still requires a more profound academic investigation. In particular, the number of studies on the ... More
The impact of renewable energy forecasts on intraday electricity pricesMar 22 2019The shift to renewable power is accelerating at a growing pace. Contemporary energy markets undergo profound structural changes. Forecasts as to the wind and solar supply become critically important. This paper studies the impact of these forecasts on ... More
Unravelling the forces underlying urban industrial agglomerationMar 22 2019As early as the 1920's Marshall suggested that firms co-locate in cities to reduce the costs of moving goods, people, and ideas. These 'forces of agglomeration' have given rise, for example, to the high tech clusters of San Francisco and Boston, and the ... More
Unravelling the forces underlying urban industrial agglomerationMar 22 2019Jun 05 2019As early as the 1920's Marshall suggested that firms co-locate in cities to reduce the costs of moving goods, people, and ideas. These 'forces of agglomeration' have given rise, for example, to the high tech clusters of San Francisco and Boston, and the ... More
Réintégration des refusés en Credit ScoringMar 21 2019The granting process of all credit institutions rejects applicants who seem risky regarding the repayment of their debt. A credit score is calculated and associated with a cut-off value beneath which an applicant is rejected. Developing a new score implies ... More
The Impact of Sex Education on Sexual Activity, Pregnancy, and AbortionMar 20 2019The purpose of this study is to find a relation between sex education and abortion in the United States. Accordingly, multivariate logistic regression is employed to study the relation between abortion and frequency of sex, pre-marriage sex, and pregnancy ... More
Markov Chain Models of Refugee Migration DataMar 19 2019The application of Markov chains to modelling refugee crises is explored, focusing on local migration of individuals at the level of cities and days. As an explicit example we apply the Markov chains migration model developed here to UNHCR data on the ... More
State-Building through Public Land Disposal? An Application of Matrix Completion for Counterfactual PredictionMar 19 2019How would the frontier have evolved in the absence of homestead policies? I apply a matrix completion method to predict the counterfactual time-series of frontier state capacity had there been no homesteading. In placebo tests, the matrix completion method ... More
Variety, Complexity and Economic DevelopmentMar 19 2019We propose a combinatorial model of economic development. An economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products of increasingly complex products. Taking into account that economies abandon ... More
The effects of institutional quality on formal and informal borrowing across high-, middle-, and low-income countriesMar 19 2019This paper examines the effects of institutional quality on financing choice of individual using a large dataset of 137,160 people from 131 countries. We classify borrowing activities into three categories, including formal, constructive informal, and ... More
A micro-simulation model of irrigation farms in the southern Murray-Darling BasinMar 14 2019This paper presents a farm level irrigation microsimulation model of the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The model leverages detailed ABARES survey data to estimate a series of input demand and output supply equations, derived from a normalised quadratic ... More
Science Quality and the Value of InventionsMar 12 2019Despite decades of research, the relationship between the quality of science and the value of inventions has remained unclear. We present the result of a large-scale matching exercise between the universes of 4.8 million patent families and 43 million ... More
Science Quality and the Value of InventionsMar 12 2019Apr 03 2019Despite decades of research, the relationship between the quality of science and the value of inventions has remained unclear. We present the result of a large-scale matching exercise between 4.8 million patent families and 43 million publication records. ... More
A fractional-order difference Cournot duopoly game with long memoryMar 11 2019We reconsider the Cournot duopoly problem in light of the theory for long memory. We introduce the Caputo fractional-order difference calculus to classical duopoly theory to propose a fractional-order discrete Cournot duopoly game model, which allows ... More
Stackelberg IndependenceMar 10 2019The standard model of sequential capacity choices is the Stackelberg quantity leadership model with linear demand. I show that under the standard assumptions, leaders' actions are informative about market conditions and independent of leaders' beliefs ... More
Heterogeneous Impact of the Minimum Wage: Implications for Changes in Between- and Within-group InequalityMar 10 2019Workers who earn at or below the minimum wage in the United States are mostly either less educated, young, or female. This paper shows that changes in the real value of the minimum wage over recent decades have affected the relationship of hourly wages ... More
Entrepreneurship, Institutions, and Economic Growth: Does the Level of Development Matter?Mar 07 2019Entrepreneurship is often touted for its ability to generate economic growth. Through the creative-destructive process, entrepreneurs are often able to innovate and outperform incumbent organizations, all of which is supposed to lead to higher employment ... More