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Deep Neural Networks for Choice Analysis: Architectural Design with Alternative-Specific Utility FunctionsSep 16 2019Whereas deep neural network (DNN) is increasingly applied to choice analysis, it is challenging to reconcile domain-specific behavioral knowledge with generic-purpose DNN, to improve DNN's interpretability and predictive power, and to identify effective ... More
Comparing the forecasting of cryptocurrencies by Bayesian time-varying volatility modelsSep 14 2019This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with constant and ... More
The Optimal Deterrence of Crime: A Focus on the Time Preference of DWI OffendersSep 14 2019We develop a general model for finding the optimal penal strategy based on the behavioral traits of the offenders. We focus on how the discount rate (level of time discounting) affects the criminal propensity on the individual level, and how the aggregation ... More
The Emergence of Innovation Complexity at Different Geographical and Technological ScalesSep 12 2019We define a novel quantitative strategy inspired by the ecological notion of nestedness to single out the scale at which innovation complexity emerges from the aggregation of specialized building blocks. Our analysis not only suggests that the innovation ... More
Direct and Indirect Effects based on Changes-in-ChangesSep 11 2019We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in-changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into an indirect ... More
A new concept of technology with systemic-purposeful perpsective: theory, examples and empirical applicationSep 11 2019Although definitions of technology exist to explain the patterns of technological innovations, there is no general definition that explain the role of technology for humans and other animal species in environment. The goal of this study is to suggest ... More
Linear Equilibria for Dynamic LQG Games with Asymmetric Information and Dependent TypesSep 11 2019We consider a non-zero-sum linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) dynamic game with asymmetric information. Each player observes privately a noisy version of a (hidden) state of the world $V$, resulting in dependent private observations. We study perfect Bayesian ... More
Taxing dissent: The impact of a social media tax in UgandaSep 09 2019We examine the impact of a new tool for suppressing the expression of dissent---a daily tax on social media use. Using a synthetic control framework, we estimate that the tax reduced the number of georeferenced Twitter users in Uganda by 13 percent. The ... More
Climate Policy under Spatial Heat Transport: Cooperative and Noncooperative Regional OutcomesSep 09 2019We build a novel stochastic dynamic regional integrated assessment model (IAM) of the climate and economic system including a number of important climate science elements that are missing in most IAMs. These elements are spatial heat transport from the ... More
Is culture a contributing factor of strong science?Sep 09 2019Many factors such as economy size, capital resources, and size of national publication market seem to be related to the scientific performance of nations. In this paper we link the national culture values with scientific performance of 53 nations. We ... More
A fixed-point policy-iteration-type algorithm for symmetric nonzero-sum stochastic impulse gamesSep 09 2019Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls offer a realistic and far-reaching modelling framework for applications within finance, energy markets and other areas, but the difficulty in solving such problems has hindered their proliferation. ... More
University-to-School Environmental Projects for Sustainable Development: A Case of Ural Federal UniversitySep 08 2019Sustainable development is a worldwide recognized social and political goal, discussed in both academic and political discourse and with much research on the topic related to sustainable development in higher education. Since mental models are formed ... More
An Experiment on Network Density and Sequential LearningSep 05 2019We conduct a sequential social learning experiment where subjects guess a hidden state after observing private signals and the guesses of a subset of their predecessors. A network determines the observable predecessors, and we compare subjects' accuracy ... More
CO2 mitigation model for China's residential building sectorSep 03 2019This paper aims to investigate the factors that can mitigate carbon-dioxide (CO2) intensity and further assess CMRBS in China based on a household scale via decomposition analysis. Here we show that: Three types of housing economic indicators and the ... More
Buy-Online-and-Pick-up-in-Store in Omnichannel RetailingSep 02 2019Sep 05 2019In this paper, we extend the model of Gao and Su (2016) and consider an omnichannel strategy in which inventory can be replenished when a retailer sells only in physical stores. With "buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store" (BOPS) having been introduced, consumers ... More
A Two-Stage Market Mechanism for Electricity with Renewable GenerationSep 02 2019We consider a two stage market mechanism for trading electricity including renewable generation as an alternative to the widely used multi-settlement market structure. The two stage market structure allows for recourse decisions by the market operator, ... More
Racial Disparities in Voting Wait Times: Evidence from Smartphone DataAug 30 2019Equal access to voting is a core feature of democratic government. Using data from millions of smartphone users, we quantify a racial disparity in voting wait times across a nationwide sample of polling places during the 2016 US presidential election. ... More
Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning ApproachAug 30 2019We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a score to a larger ... More
Culture and the disposition effectAug 30 2019We study the relationship between national culture and the disposition effect by investigating international differences in the degree of investors' disposition effect. We utilize brokerage data of 387,993 traders from 83 countries and find great variation ... More
Centrality-oriented Causality -- A Study of EU Agricultural Subsidies and Digital Developement in PolandAug 29 2019Sep 16 2019Results of a convincing causal statistical inference related to socio-economic phenomena are treated as especially desired background for conducting various socio-economic programs or government interventions. Unfortunately, quite often real socio-economic ... More
A New Proposal of Applications of Statistical Depth Functions in Causal Analysis of Socio-Economic Phenomena Based on Official Statistics -- A Study of EU Agricultural Subsidies and Digital Developement in PolandAug 29 2019Results of a convincing causal statistical inference related to socio-economic phenomena are treated as especially desired background for conducting various socio-economic programs or government interventions. Unfortunately, quite often real socio-economic ... More
Coase Meets Bellman: Dynamic Programming and Production ChainsAug 28 2019We show that competitive equilibria in a range of useful production chain models can be recovered as the solutions to a class of dynamic programming problems. Bringing dynamic programming to bear on the equilibrium structure of production chains adds ... More
Interaction of a Hydrogen Refueling Station Network for Heavy-Duty Vehicles and the Power System in Germany for 2050Aug 27 2019A potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is to use alternatively fueled vehicles (AFV). Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) emit a large share of GHG emissions in the transport sector and are therefore the subject of ... More
Future competitive bioenergy technologies in the German heat sector: Findings from an economic optimization approachAug 27 2019Meeting the defined greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in Germany is only possible by switching to renewable technologies in the energy sector. A major share of that reduction needs to be covered by the heat sector, which accounts for ~35% of the ... More
Future competitive bioenergy technologies in the German heat sector: Findings from an economic optimization approachAug 27 2019Aug 28 2019Meeting the defined greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in Germany is only possible by switching to renewable technologies in the energy sector. A major share of that reduction needs to be covered by the heat sector, which accounts for ~35% of the ... More
Spatial pattern and city size distributionAug 26 2019Many large cities are found at locations with certain first nature advantages. Yet, those exogenous locational features may not be the most potent forces governing the spatial pattern of cities. In particular, population size, spacing and industrial composition ... More
Sorting on the Used-Car Market After the Volkswagen Emission ScandalAug 26 2019The disclosure of the VW emission manipulation scandal caused a quasi-experimental market shock to the observable environmental quality of VW diesel vehicles. To investigate the market reaction to this shock, we collect data from a used-car online advertisement ... More
Revenue Sharing in the Internet: A Moral Hazard Approach and a Net-neutrality PerspectiveAug 26 2019Revenue sharing contracts between Content Providers (CPs) and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) can act as leverage for enhancing the infrastructure of the Internet. ISPs can be incentivized to make investments in network infrastructure that improve Quality ... More
Dynamic Programming with State-Dependent DiscountingAug 23 2019This paper extends the core results of discrete time infinite horizon dynamic programming theory to the case of state-dependent discounting. The traditional constant-discount condition requires that the discount factor of the controller is strictly less ... More
Dynamic Programming with State-Dependent DiscountingAug 23 2019Sep 02 2019This paper extends the core results of discrete time infinite horizon dynamic programming theory to the case of state-dependent discounting. The traditional constant-discount condition requires that the discount factor of the controller is strictly less ... More
Heterogeneous Earnings Effects of the Job Corps by Gender Earnings: A Translated Quantile ApproachAug 23 2019Several studies of the Job Corps tend to nd more positive earnings effects for males than for females. This effect heterogeneity favouring males contrasts with the results of the majority of other training programmes' evaluations. Applying the translated ... More
Economically rational sample-size choice and irreproducibilityAug 23 2019Several systematic studies have suggested that a large fraction of published research is not reproducible. One probable reason for low reproducibility is insufficient sample size, resulting in low power and low positive predictive value. It has been suggested ... More
Economically rational sample-size choice and irreproducibilityAug 23 2019Sep 10 2019Several systematic studies have suggested that a large fraction of published research is not reproducible. One probable reason for low reproducibility is insufficient sample size, resulting in low power and low positive predictive value. It has been suggested ... More
Implementing result-based agri-environmental payments by means of modellingAug 22 2019From a theoretical point of view, result-based agri-environmental payments are clearly preferable to action-based payments. However, they suffer from two major practical disadvantages: costs of measuring the results and payment uncertainty for the participating ... More
Forecasting e-scooter competition with direct and access trips by mode and distance in New York CityAug 21 2019Given the lack of demand forecasting models for e-scooter sharing systems, we address this research gap using data from Portland, OR, and New York City. A log-log regression model is estimated for e-scooter trips based on user age, income, labor force ... More
Decision-facilitating information in hidden-action setups: An agent-based approachAug 21 2019The hidden action model captures a fundamental problem of principal-agent theory and provides an optimal sharing rule when only the outcome but not the effort can be observed. However, the hidden action model builds on various explicit and also implicit ... More
A complex net of intertwined complements: Measuring interdimensional dependence among the poorAug 21 2019The choice of appropriate measures of deprivation, identification and aggregation of poverty has been a challenge for many years. The works of Sen, Atkinson and others have been the cornerstone for most of the literature on poverty measuring. Recent contributions ... More
Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic TheoryAug 19 2019A number of macroeconomic theories, very popular in the 1980s, seem to have completely disappeared and been replaced by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We will argue that this replacement is due to a tacit agreement on a number ... More
Robonomics: The Study of Robot-Human Peer-to-Peer Financial Transactions and AgreementsAug 18 2019The concept of a blockchain has given way to the development of cryptocurrencies, enabled smart contracts, and unlocked a plethora of other disruptive technologies. But, beyond its use case in cryptocurrencies, and in network coordination and automation, ... More
The inverted U-shaped effect of urban hotspots spatial compactness on urban economic growthAug 15 2019The compact city, as a sustainable concept, is intended to augment the efficiency of urban function. However, previous studies have concentrated more on morphology than on structure. The present study focuses on urban structural elements, i.e., urban ... More
Automation Impacts on China's Polarized Job MarketAug 15 2019When facing threats from automation, a worker residing in a large Chinese city might not be as lucky as a worker in a large U.S. city, depending on the type of large city in which one resides. Empirical studies found that large U.S. cities exhibit resilience ... More
Why Finnish polytechnics reject top applicantsAug 15 2019I use a panel of higher education clearinghouse data to study the centralized assignment of applicants to Finnish polytechnics. I show that on a yearly basis, large numbers of top applicants unnecessarily remain unassigned to any program. There are programs ... More
Forecasting U.S. Textile Comparative Advantage Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models and Time Series Outlier AnalysisAug 13 2019To establish an updated understanding of the U.S. textile and apparel (TAP) industrys competitive position within the global textile environment, trade data from UN-COMTRADE (1996-2016) was used to calculate the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage ... More
Wasserstein Index Generation Model: Automatic Generation of Time-series Index with Application to Economic Policy UncertaintyAug 12 2019I propose a novel method, called the Wasserstein Index Generation model (WIG), to generate public sentiment index automatically. It can be performed off-the-shelf and is especially good at detecting sudden sentiment spikes. To test the model's effectiveness, ... More
Enhancing the Demand for Labour survey by including skills from online job advertisements using model-assisted calibrationAug 08 2019In the article we describe an enhancement to the Demand for Labour (DL) survey conducted by Statistics Poland, which involves the inclusion of skills obtained from online job advertisements. The main goal is to provide estimates of the demand for skills ... More
Noncooperative dynamics in election interferenceAug 07 2019Sep 02 2019Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an age-old, existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. ... More
Noncooperative dynamics in election interferenceAug 07 2019Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an age-old, existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. ... More
Review of the Plan for Integrating Big Data Analytics Program for the Electronic Marketing System and Customer Relationship Management: A Case Study XYZ InstitutionAug 07 2019This research aims to explore business processes and what the factors have major influence on electronic marketing and CRM systems? Which data needs to be analyzed and integrated in the system, and how to do that? How effective of integration the electronic ... More
Ordinal Tax To Sustain a Digital EconomyAug 06 2019Recently, the French Senate approved a law that imposes a 3% tax on revenue generated from digital services by companies above a certain size. While there is a lot of political debate about economic consequences of this action, it is actually interesting ... More
Evaluating Pest Management Strategies: A Robust Method and its Application to Strawberry Disease ManagementAug 05 2019Farmers use pesticides to reduce yield losses. The efficacies of pesticide treatments are often evaluated by analyzing the average treatment effects and risks. The stochastic efficiency with respect to a function is often employed in such evaluations ... More
The Time Importance for Prospect TheoryAug 05 2019A theory usually comprises assumptions and deduced predictions from them. In this paper, empirical evidences corroborate with assumptions about time for a decision making facing known probabilities and outcomes.
Collaborative knowledge creation: Evidence from Japanese patent dataAug 04 2019This paper presents micro-econometric evidence for collaborative knowledge creation at the level of individual researchers. The key determinant for developing new ideas is the exchange of differentiated knowledge among collaborators. To stay creative, ... More
Linkages and systemic risk in the European insurance sector: Some new evidence based on dynamic spanning treesAug 03 2019Aug 21 2019This paper is part of the research on the interlinkages between insurers and their contribution to systemic risk on the insurance market. Its main purpose is to present the results of the analysis of linkage dynamics and systemic risk in the European ... More
Linkages and systemic risk in the European insurance sector: Some new evidence based on dynamic spanning treesAug 03 2019This paper is part of the research on the interlinkages between insurers and their contribution to systemic risk on the insurance market. Its main purpose is to present the results of the analysis of linkage dynamics and systemic risk in the European ... More
Hiring in the substance use disorder treatment related sector during the first five years of Medicaid expansionAug 01 2019Effective treatment strategies exist for substance use disorder (SUD), however severe hurdles remain in ensuring adequacy of the SUD treatment (SUDT) workforce as well as improving SUDT affordability, access and stigma. Although evidence shows recent ... More
Career Choice as an Extended Spatial Evolutionary Public Goods GameJul 31 2019We propose an extended spatial evolutionary public goods game (SEPGG) model to study the dynamics of individual career choice and the corresponding social output. Based on the social value orientation theory, we categorized two classes of work, namely ... More
Killer Technologies: the destructive creation in the technical changeJul 29 2019Killer technology is a radical innovation, based on new products and/or processes, that with high technical and/or economic performance destroys the usage value of established techniques previously sold and used. Killer technology is a new concept in ... More
Cities and space: Common power laws and spatial fractal structuresJul 29 2019City size distributions are known to be well approximated by power laws across a wide range of countries. But such distributions are also meaningful at other spatial scales, such as within certain regions of a country. Using data from China, France, Germany, ... More
Market and Long Term Accounting Operational PerformanceJul 26 2019Following the value relevance literature, this study verifies whether the marketplace differentiates companies of high, medium, and low long-term operational performance, measured by accounting information on profitability, sales variation and indebtedness. ... More
Liquid Speed: On-Demand Fast Trading at Distributed ExchangesJul 24 2019Exchanges acquire excess processing capacity to accommodate trading activity surges associated with zero-sum high-frequency trader (HFT) "duels." The idle capacity's opportunity cost is an externality of low-latency trading. We build a model of decentralized ... More
Prosumage of solar electricity: tariff design, capacity investments, and power system effectsJul 23 2019We analyze how tariff design incentivizes households to invest in residential photovoltaic and battery systems, and explore selected power sector effects. To this end, we apply an open-source power system model featuring prosumage agents to German 2030 ... More
Sustainable Business Models: A ReviewJul 23 2019The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction ... More
A Note on Universal Bilinear PortfoliosJul 23 2019This note provides a neat and enjoyable expansion and application of the magnificent Ordentlich-Cover theory of "universal portfolios." I generalize Cover's benchmark of the best constant-rebalanced portfolio (or 1-linear trading strategy) in hindsight ... More
Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Bayes Estimates of New Yorkers' Willingness to Pay for Features of Shared Automated Vehicle ServicesJul 23 2019In this paper, we contrast parametric and semi-parametric representations of unobserved heterogeneity in hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logit models and leverage these methods to infer distributions of willingness to pay for features of shared automated ... More
Powershare MechanicsJul 18 2019This paper proposes the governance framework of a gamified social network for charity crowdfunding fueled by public computing. It introduces optimal scarce resource allocation model, technological configuration of the FIRE consensus protocol, and multi-layer ... More
Behavioural Macroeconomic Policy: New perspectives on time inconsistencyJul 18 2019This paper brings together divergent approaches to time inconsistency from macroeconomic policy and behavioural economics. Behavioural discount functions from behavioural microeconomics are embedded into a game-theoretic analysis of temptation versus ... More
The cyclicality of loan loss provisions under three different accounting models: the United Kingdom, Spain, and BrazilJul 17 2019A controversy involving loan loss provisions in banks concerns their relationship with the business cycle. While international accounting standards for recognizing provisions (incurred loss model) would presumably be pro-cyclical, accentuating the effects ... More
Confidence Collapse in a Multi-Household, Self-Reflexive DSGE ModelJul 17 2019We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic ... More
Confidentiality and linked dataJul 15 2019Data providers such as government statistical agencies perform a balancing act: maximising information published to inform decision-making and research, while simultaneously protecting privacy. The emergence of identified administrative datasets with ... More
Online Rental Housing Market Representation and the Digital Reproduction of Urban InequalityJul 13 2019As the rental housing market moves online, the Internet offers divergent possible futures: either the promise of more-equal access to information for previously marginalized homeseekers, or a reproduction of longstanding information inequalities. Biases ... More
A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneityJul 12 2019We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from clients in return ... More
Singularities and Catastrophes in Economics: Historical Perspectives and Future DirectionsJul 12 2019Economic theory is a mathematically rich field in which there are opportunities for the formal analysis of singularities and catastrophes. This article looks at the historical context of singularities through the work of two eminent Frenchmen around the ... More
A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysisJul 11 2019Aug 01 2019This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic policy uncertainty ... More
A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysisJul 11 2019This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic policy uncertainty ... More
Relationships between different Macroeconomic Variables using VECMJul 09 2019Through this paper, an attempt has been made to quantify the underlying relationships between the leading macroeconomic indicators. More clearly, an effort has been made in this paper to assess the cointegrating relationships and examine the error correction ... More
Optimal transport on large networks, a practitioner's guideJul 04 2019Aug 22 2019This article presents a set of tools for the modeling of a spatial allocation problem in a large geographic market and gives examples of applications. In our settings, the market is described by a network that maps the cost of travel between each pair ... More
Optimal transport on large networks a practitioner guideJul 04 2019This article presents a set of tools for the modeling of a spatial allocation problem in a large geographic market and gives examples of applications. In our settings, the market is described by a network that maps the cost of travel between each pair ... More
Emergent inequality and endogenous dynamics in a simple behavioral macroeconomic modelJul 03 2019Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers, and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the stead-state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic ... More
Sensitivity of Estimation Precision to Moments with an Application to a Model of Joint Retirement Planning of CouplesJul 03 2019This paper introduces measures for how each moment contributes to the precision of the parameter estimates in GMM settings. For example, one of the measures asks what would happen to the variance of the parameter estimates if a particular moment was dropped ... More
Machine learning and behavioral economics for personalized choice architectureJul 03 2019Behavioral economics changed the way we think about market participants and revolutionized policy-making by introducing the concept of choice architecture. However, even though effective on the level of a population, interventions from behavioral economics, ... More
A Model of Presidential DebatesJul 02 2019Presidential debates are thought to provide an important public good by revealing information on candidates to voters. However, this may not always be the case. We consider an endogenous model of presidential debates in which an incumbent and a contender ... More
A Model of Presidential DebatesJul 02 2019Jul 18 2019Presidential debates are thought to provide an important public good by revealing information on candidates to voters. However, this may not always be the case. We consider an endogenous model of presidential debates in which an incumbent and a contender ... More
A Model of Presidential DebatesJul 02 2019Aug 25 2019Presidential debates are thought to provide an important public good by revealing information on candidates to voters. However, this may not always be the case. We consider an endogenous model of presidential debates in which an incumbent and a contender ... More
A Model of Presidential DebatesJul 02 2019Aug 08 2019Presidential debates are thought to provide an important public good by revealing information on candidates to voters. However, this may not always be the case. We consider an endogenous model of presidential debates in which an incumbent and a contender ... More
Solving the Reswitching Paradox in the Sraffian Theory of CapitalJul 02 2019The possibility of re-switching of techniques in Piero Sraffa's intersectoral model, namely the returning capital-intensive techniques with monotonic changes in the profit rate, is traditionally considered as a paradox putting at stake the viability of ... More
Emergence of multiplicity of time scales in the modeling of climate, matter, life, and economyJul 01 2019We address dfferences between characteristic times in climate change and show the universal emergence of multiple time scales in material sciences, biomedicine and economics.
Why so many significant Phase 3 results in clinical trials?Jun 29 2019Planning and execution of clinical research and publication of results should conform to the highest ethical standards, given that human lives are at stake. However, economic incentives can generate conflicts of interest for investigators, who may be ... More
Are cryptocurrency traders pioneers or just risk-seekers? Evidence from brokerage accountsJun 27 2019Are cryptocurrency traders driven by a desire to invest in a new asset class to diversify their portfolio or are they merely seeking to increase their levels of risk? To answer this question, we use individual-level brokerage data and study their behavior ... More
The Syntax of the Accounting Language: A First StepJun 26 2019We review and interpret two basic propositions published by Ellerman (2014). The propositions address the algebraic structure of T accounts and double entry bookkeeping (DEB). The paper builds on this previous contribution with the view of reconciling ... More
Long Run Feedback in the Broker Call Money MarketJun 24 2019I unravel the basic long run dynamics of the broker call money market, which is the pile of cash that funds margin loans to retail clients (read: continuous time Kelly gamblers). Call money is assumed to supply itself perfectly inelastically, and to continuously ... More
A New Solution to Market Definition: An Approach Based on Multi-dimensional Substitutability StatisticsJun 24 2019Market definition is an important component in the premerger investigation, but the models used in the market definition have not developed much in the past three decades since the Critical Loss Analysis (CLA) was proposed in 1989. The CLA helps the Hypothetical ... More
Social Contagion of Gift Exchange in Online GroupsJun 24 2019Aug 16 2019Does receiving a gift encourage the recipient to send more gifts? Causal identification of behavioral contagion is very challenging, especially based on observational data from social networks. Given that the online monetary gift (also known as a "red ... More
Identify and understand pay-it-forward reciprocity using millions of online red packetsJun 24 2019Pay-it-forward reciprocity encourages the spread of prosocial behavior. However, existing empirical evidence of pay-it-forward behavior has been largely based on laboratory experiments, which are limited in sample size and external validity. Extending ... More
A network approach to cartel detection in public auction marketsJun 20 2019Competing firms can increase profits by setting prices collectively, imposing significant costs on consumers. Such groups of firms are known as cartels and because this behavior is illegal, their operations are secretive and difficult to detect. Cartels ... More
Multiscale cross--correlations and triangular arbitrage opportunities in the ForexJun 18 2019Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation methodology is applied to the foreign exchange (Forex) market. High frequency fluctuations of exchange rates of eight major world currencies over the period 2010--2018 are used to study cross-correlations. The ... More
CostMAP: An open-source software package for developing cost surfacesJun 17 2019Cost Surfaces are a quantitative means of assigning social, environmental, and engineering costs that impact movement across landscapes. Cost surfaces are a crucial aspect of route optimization and least cost path (LCP) calculations and are used in a ... More
Detecting p-hackingJun 16 2019We analyze what can be learned from tests for p-hacking based on distributions of t-statistics and p-values across multiple studies. We analytically characterize restrictions on these distributions that conform with the absence of p-hacking. This forms ... More
On Capital Allocation under Time and Information ConstraintsJun 14 2019Attempts to allocate capital to a selection of different investment objects often face the problem that investors' decisions are made under limited information (no historical return data) and an extremely limited timeframe. Nevertheless, in some cases, ... More
The pattern of economies green growth: The role of path dependency in Green Economy expansionJun 12 2019Existing research argues that countries increase their production baskets based on the available capabilities, adding products which require similar capabilities to those already produced, a process referred to as path dependency. Expansions to include ... More
Loan maturity aggregation in interbank lending networks obscures mesoscale structure and economic functionsJun 12 2019Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan maturities. ... More